You remember how McGuinty was feeling last october?
Marois is knowing very well that this election is the kiss of death for her party.
This is due to three points:
-The PQ never had a minority in his history while being in power. The PQ is prone to factionalism and keeping the control of the many wings of this party is difficult especially while you are in power.
-The PQ had won nothing in this election in term of votes. About 60% of voters in Quebec had voted for the Liberals or the CAQ who are not interested in having any type of referendum in the next decade, at least.
-The economy is a big factor. Probably that the Quebec’s government credit rating will be downgraded in the next few months. If the PQ does any type of austerity plan, this will probably costs the support of some factions within the party especially considering what Marois platform was at the first place.
The Charbonneau Commission will also re-start soon in a week. I do believe that this commission could hurt both the Liberals and the PQ considering the timeframe within this commission. I do believe that both the PQ and the Liberals are open to sabotage this commission in order to save their political game.
So, in a way, Marois is the worse of positions. A party with a low approval rating to start with, no honeymoon period in sight and with a party prone to factionnism who was never in power since the advent of Web 2.0 and the 24 hours news circle.
Quebec provincial politics are now a little bit in a situation like France, as Pauline Marois is playing François Hollande, except that Marois does not have 5 years. Remember that Nicolas Sarkozy or the UMP in legislative elections didn’t not have done as worse as expected.
I also do think that the 2012 general election in Quebec is like the 2008 federal election in Quebec when the Bloc was going down while having more seats then in 2006. We all know the result in the 2011 general election, when the Bloc was the »old and tired » party and this party was decimated electorally with even its leader being defeated in his own riding.
I am not good at predicting the future, but these are two good predictions for the next two years:
-The Charbonneau Commission will be worse then Gomery for both the PLQ and the PQ. Some MP cross the floor elsewhere. Then the next election is a complete seachange like the 2011 federal election was in Quebec. Probably that the CAQ will be in power, with a provincial wing of the NDP doing (some) inroads along with Quebec Solidaire.
-The Charbonneau Commission will have a limited effect on both parties. The PQ will be unpopular due to some unpopular policies and the Liberals (under Charest or any other leader) will easily regain power in 12-30 months.