For those who don’t know what the French term »beau risque » (nice risk) mean in a political context read this.
Am I stunned with Douglas Carswell to resign and contest a by-election as a UKIP candidate?
Yes, even if Carswell would have been more at ease with UKIP in 2011-2012 than the UKIP of today.
I wish Carswell well in whatever he is doing, he is a genuinely nice person and you under-estimate him at your own peril.
Many who bash Carswell don’t know him. He is unlike many plastic politicians of today.
But there is no doubt that Carswell deflection will procure a blip to UKIP support and considering the actual electoral system, there is a strong chance that Ed Miliband becomes prime minister with a majority even if he wins 35-36% of the popular vote.
I agree however that if UKIP become the new Liberal Democrats that it is a double edged sword for Labour. What they will win due to vote splitting, they could lose big in former Labour heartlands and in swing regions such as Essex and Kent.
In Rotherham for example, the Labour Party is the old, tired, corrupt party in power since too many years.
But I agree that if Ed Miliband is PM, you could forget about any changes about the EU. Carswell would have helped those having no intention of going in the right direction especially considering Britain FPTP electoral system.
In the 1990’s, the former Canadian Reform Party won many seats in constituencies which were former social-democratic strongholds. But in the end, Liberals won parliamentary majorities because they won about a 100 seats in the seat rich province of Ontario due to the vote slip between the Reform and the Progressive Conservatives.
Now for the seat. Carswell could win his seat. Even as an independent he would have a good shot.